Statisticians who study coincidences are fond of saying that ordinary people don’t know how to estimate the probabilities of coincidences. To illustrate our poor statistical thinking, statisticians ...

This is a preview. Log in through your library . The Annals of Statistics publishes research papers of the highest quality reflecting the many facets of contemporary statistics. Primary emphasis is ...

In order to get a more accurate estimate of the probability, we would need to look at a greater number of trials. Let’s imagine we have a bag containing two different types of sweet but we do not know ...

Let (X, Y) be a random vector whose conditional excess probability θ(x, y):= P(Y ≤ y ǀ X > x) is of interest. Estimating this kind of probability is a delicate problem as soon as x tends to be large, ...

The theoretical probability of getting a head when you flip a coin is \(\frac{1}{2}\), but if a coin was actually flipped 100 times you may not get exactly 50 heads, although it should be close to ...