Trump paused reciprocal tariffs for 90 days on April 9, saying countries were eager to negotiate deals. The first emerged a month later with the UK.

The agreement between the US and China to roll back their respective tariffs for 90 days has led to renewed optimism that the worst of America’s trade wars is over. I’m not seeing the “breakthrough”: There’s still plenty of scope for economic damage that the Federal Reserve will struggle to contain.